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And the Nigerian President is .....

 


A section of the Nigerian population has long maintained that Bola Ahmed Tinubu rigged the 2023 presidential election. Others believe that, although the election had significant shortcomings, the outcome reflected the constitutional requirements and the votes officially declared by INEC.

The truth is more complicated. The election was marked by considerable drama, controversy and legal challenges. To understand the arguments, it helps to examine both the election results and the constitutional provisions governing how a Nigerian president emerges.

What does the Constitution actually say?

Under Section 134(2) of the Nigerian Constitution, where there are more than two presidential candidates, a candidate must satisfy two conditions:

  1. Secure the highest number of votes cast in the election.

  2. Obtain at least 25% of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of all the states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

This second condition generated considerable controversy.

The critical word is AND.

Does the Constitution mean a candidate must obtain 25% of the votes in at least two-thirds of the 36 states (24 states), with the FCT as an additional, independent requirement?

Or does it mean that the FCT is simply included in the geographical calculation, effectively making it one of the 37 constituent units?

The distinction is important. Under the first interpretation, a candidate who fails to obtain 25% in Abuja cannot become president, irrespective of how many states he wins. This would give FCT voters a special constitutional significance in presidential elections.

Under the second interpretation, the FCT is treated like another state for calculating the required geographical spread.

Lawyers and constitutional commentators argued both interpretations.

What did the election results show?

There were four major contenders.

1. The national popular vote

Candidate        Party    Votes                    Percentage
Bola Tinubu        APC            8,794,726                    36.61%
Atiku Abubakar        PDP            6,984,520                    29.07%
Peter Obi        Labour            6,101,533                    25.40%
Rabiu Kwankwaso        NNPP            1,496,687                    6.23%

By votes cast nationally, Tinubu was clearly the winner.

2. The geographical spread

According to INEC's submissions during the election litigation, Tinubu secured at least 25% of the votes in 29 states, exceeding the 24-state threshold.

This was an important part of the defence of his election.

3. The Federal Capital Territory

The FCT produced a different result altogether.

Candidate        Party        Votes                            Percentage
Peter Obi        Labour        281,717                            58.95%
Bola Tinubu        APC        90,902                            18.99%
Atiku Abubakar        PDP        74,194                            15.52%
Rabiu Kwankwaso        NNPP        19,798                            4.14%

Peter Obi won overwhelmingly in Abuja, while Tinubu failed to reach the constitutional 25% threshold there.

This became one of the principal legal arguments against Tinubu's declaration as president-elect.

What did the courts decide?

Both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi challenged the election results.

Among their arguments were concerns about INEC's failure to upload polling-unit results electronically to its IReV portal, as Nigerians had expected. INEC acknowledged technical glitches but maintained that these did not invalidate the election.

The opposition also argued that Tinubu's failure to secure 25% of the votes in the FCT meant he had not fulfilled the constitutional requirements.

The Presidential Election Petition Court rejected this argument in September 2023. The Supreme Court subsequently upheld that interpretation on 26 October 2023.

The courts accepted that, when Section 134(2)(b) is read alongside Section 299 of the Constitution, the FCT should be treated as a state for the purpose of calculating the two-thirds geographical requirement. Consequently, no separate requirement existed for a presidential candidate to obtain 25% of the votes in Abuja.

The Supreme Court also dismissed Atiku's attempt to introduce additional evidence concerning Tinubu's academic records at Chicago State University, ruling that the matter could not be introduced at that stage of the proceedings.

So, was the election rigged?

This is where we must distinguish between winning an election legally and conducting an election that inspires public confidence.

The Supreme Court upheld Tinubu's victory. That is the legal position, and it would be wrong to suggest that the FCT result automatically disqualified him after the courts had settled the constitutional interpretation.

However, the court's decision does not mean that the election was perfect or that all the opposition's concerns were imaginary.

The failure of INEC's electronic result-transmission system, the controversies surrounding the collation process and the loss of public confidence in the electoral process remain legitimate subjects of discussion.

There is also an important distinction between believing that an election was poorly conducted and establishing, through admissible evidence, that it was deliberately rigged on a scale sufficient to change the outcome.

Ultimately, Tinubu emerged as the legally declared winner, but the controversy surrounding the 2023 election exposed weaknesses in Nigeria's electoral system that should not be ignored.

Democracy is not simply about who wins an election. It is also about whether the process is transparent, credible and trusted by the people.




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