Ibadan State - road to dreams?

I recently came from Nigeria, and the word on everybody's lips, well, almost everybody I had spoken to, was that "we", I mean those from Ibadan environs, would have a state of our own. It seemed that the issue of "why" had long been decided, and people were acting on "when". People have seen the "progress" in Oshogbo with the "newly" created Osun state. The new buildings, the increase in jobs, other infrastructure, and whether we should have our own state. People were talking about the Ibadan-Lagos express. We have already seen the rate of development in Lagos. It seems each day, numerous houses are being opened or built. My father, before he died, was a keen supporter of our state, and since I did not have much experience with the political landscape in Oyo State, I decided to listen and ask questions. It is said that we in Ibadan have greater populations than some whole states, Ibadan has a total population of 2.559,850, which is more than that of Bayelsa (1,793,358), Kwara (2,371,089), Ebonyi (2,173,212), Ekiti (2, 384,212), Gombe ( 2,353,879), Nasarawa (1,863,275), Taraba (2,300,736) and Yobe (2,321,591) states according to the 2006 census results. 

The answers I've got so far haven't been satisfying, and they run along the lines of "Amala" politics and aren't particularly progressive to me. I may not have asked the right people; the ones I spoke with were drivers, conductors, doctor friends, accountants, bank managers, and students, who don't seem to know about politics. So I asked another uncle, and he told me that I should see how Oshogbo had 'developed'. We, too, want more of the share that the government was "dishing out". Hence I searched the internet for some more prudent, economic, and progressive reasons, and all I saw was "allocation", "allocation", "allocation", in this case, allocation of resources. I was starting to feel very frustrated as an Ibadan indigene. The government does have a duty to provide public services, order and safety, economic, education, social protection, health, etc. The people of Ibadan believed that this was not adequately provided for them under the old Oyo state framework. They felt cheated as, apart from having the highest population by far, responsible for about just less than 50% of the population and generating about 80% of its revenue, where was all the money going, they asked.

Some people have written books such as Dead Aid and The Looting Machine. They believe that the excess money via a natural resource or aid has caused us to find ways to "spend" this money, leading to the creation of inefficient government departments and additional unnecessary bureaucracy, white elephant projects, which are not actually producing anything in themselves but are consumers of money, services, etc. Hence, it operates like a pyramid scheme and creates the illusion of development and progress because buildings are being built, government offices are being hired, and the state is generating limited profit from it. It is not economically viable and cannot be sustained. And in reality, nothing is actually being produced materially, and the services being provided could be delivered more effectively by other,  more efficient means. Moreover, since the people do not provide the state government with a substantial proportion of its revenue, the state does not feel responsible for them. Although people dislike paying taxes, taxes make governments more accountable to the electorate.

We should ask whether Ibadan State has enough capital, i.e. Internally Generated Revenue IGR, to exist on its own without the allocation from the government. Lagos State, the highest, has generated about 77% of its expenditure. No other state has been able to surpass the 30% mark, according to the 2013 Budget (but more in the 2016 Budget). Because current oil prices are low and FG allocations are decreasing, do we still demand a state? According to the paper "Analysis of Internally Generated Revenue and Its Implication on Fiscal Viability of State Governments in Nigeria" by A.G. Asimiyu et al. in the Journal of Empirical Economics in 2014. http://www.rassweb.com/wp-content/uploads/PDF/JEE/Vol-2/Issue-4/Paper%204.pdf" State governments now face more challenges in terms of struggling to be less dependent on the Federal government for financial resources". "The problem of lack of fiscal transparency due to mismanagement of funds, corruption, poor internal control and lackadaisical attitude to government and property still abounds". "It is apparent that states are not only living from hand to mouth but are mere appendages of the government at the centre." It is said that all of the state's governments have been living on money or "funds they did not generate". The paper further stated that most states had "mortgaged" their monthly allocations from the federal statutory allocation due to serious loans and the pressure of bond payments. Besides the local debts, most states have also exposed themselves to foreign debts and bonds, which have practically mortgaged the monthly allocations they receive from the Federation Account". Oyo state has been having problems paying its own civil servants and pensioners. Since federal allocations to states have been reduced by 40%, state governments have been facing problems. Recently,y the Osun governor had to cry out for additional funds because he had not paid some state civil servants for about 5 months. http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2015/03/25/why-i-owe-osun-workers-5-months-salary-aregbesola, and Oyo state has not been able to pay a large section of its civil servants for the past 3 months. Not all states have been able to implement the N18,000 minimum wage. 

The last words on this go to Chief Adebayo Oyero, current President of the Central Council of Ibadan Indigenes (CCII). Chief Oyero - "I can tell you that Ibadan State will be more viable. We will eliminate waste. In Oyo State, Ibadan is the livewire. 80 per cent of the internally generated revenue comes from Ibadan and Ibarapa. Our plan is that in Ibadan State, we will not have a bloated staff. ICT will reduce personnel costs. Currently, there is untapped potential in Ibadan. So I moved into my house in Ibadan 31 years ago, and I have not paid the tenement rate up to now. Ibadan is a gold mine untapped."