The issue of counting Nigeria’s Population Part 1

The Nigerian population issue has been on the back of our society for a long time. Recently the Nigerian House of Assembly talked about having another census in 2018. According to the assembly, it was supposed to take place every 10 years, and the planning for it will be 2 years. By the time the British left in 1960, they made it such that no single tribe or region could rule Nigeria on its own. It was felt that the British created a scenario which means that none of the 3 major tribes could rule on their own - hence all of the major tribes had to co-operate or at least 2 of the 3. Since the regions voted along tribal lines, each of main tribes was represented by a party; Northern Region - Northern People's Congress (NPC), Eastern Region - The National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) and the Western Region - Action Group (AG). There always had to be a coalition between 2 regions out of the 3 regions to form a government. There was the issue of minorities being in each of the 3 main regions which were always feeling disenfranchised. The 2 major groups first to get together were the Northern and the Eastern which formed an alliance (NPC/NCNC). They got together to decimate the opposition i.e. splitting the main Western region party (AG) into AG and NNDP (Awo/Akintola fractions), splitting the Western region in an act of gerrymandering, resulting in the creation of the mid-Western State, and putting the opposition leader in prison on charges of treason (because he disagreed with them) the West had been removed from the equation and hence they had effectively got rid of any opposition to their government. Also, there were serious distrust issues within the NPC\NCNC coalition. The result of the census 1st after independence resulted in a situation that the North could practically rule without the help of its Eastern allies i.e. solely on their own, this proved very controversial and lead to riots. Since we were practising a parliamentary form of government i.e. MPs represent populations, the party that has a majority number of MPs will form a government.

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But with all that money and power going to the more populous North and in addition to quota system which made sure the “disadvantaged” North played an active role in government over the past 56 or so years one would have thought by now it would have developed and the population’s level of comfort would have been equal to that in the south. The Quota System is a form of Affirmative action as known in the USA (employment equity in Canda) to ensure that the North keeps up with the South, but this has further added to the problems. With all the money it has led to corruption on a massive scale, poverty, unemployment, further deprivation in the areas it was supposed to be protecting etc. When you compare the indices of good living in the South with the North. You will be surprised except for some towns and cities in the North all the rest is low, the number of doctors, health professionals, maternal survival, Infant mortality, life expectancy, immunization, etc. rates. They all show that not only are they poorer, but only a few people are actually enjoying all that money, the money is going only to the ruling class, elites, etc and the rest are worse off. The level of education is lower as compared to the South to the extent that they had to lower the pass rate as to get people to enter schools if you come from the North as compared to the South. The number of students leaving school with a standard level as compared to the South is lower. The published national JAMB results is a good example, millions in the South but a few thousand in some states in the North. In the North because of the huge number of lowly educated unemployed youths providing source material for any charismatic religious leader who is bent on the overthrow of the present order of things and setting up their own system. In addition to a promise of wealth, security, and a much better afterlife, people swamp to these leaders. Maitatsine in the 1970s followed by Boko Haram in the 1990s has filled the vacuum where these individuals feel led down by the system. A group that believes “Western Education is a sin”, will have problems in educating our youths. Producing lawyers, doctors, professionals, etc. But despite this, and not identifying the problems the government continues to pour lots and lots of money into the state's coffers and not fixing all the leakages.

Unfortunately, a lot of the states cannot exist on their own without government assistance there are economically non-viable entities. Nigeria is divided into 6 geopolitical zones the North has 3 and 19 states plus the FGT and the Eastern region, plus Western regions have 17 states. Of the 10 richest states by GDP, only 2 are from the North and of the 10 poorest states 2 are from the South. Now in the time of economic downturn economic transparency is required. Hence, people would require more of their politicians and the age of stuffing “Ghana Must Go” bags with cash has gone. With data required to see how much was done and the effect, it has on improving the life of Nigerians. And with anti-corruption crusades going all over the country there is more oversight and auditing with transparency. Now, with statistical data pouring in from the birth rates in the Hospitals, immunization rates, school rates, number of children being admitted every single rate, number of people accessing food, people living in an area i.e. amount of water consumed or as simple thing like the amount of candle lights seen in a particular area one can estimate the population of the area. Then not to talk of satellite imagery that even on google maps on can estimate the population i.e. count the number of houses and huts. In the age of the computer and people can now use different analytic models to predict or estimate a population. States with the highest population are expected to produce the largest amount of money especially when they began to tax them. Lagos is considered a good example with its Internally Generated Revenue covering according to the 2015 data, about having more than 32 states combined of the Federation, being responsible for about 40% of the revenue generated. Of the Internally Generated Revenue recorded in 2015, 83% of it comes from the South, with 47% from the South West, 27% from the South-South and 9% from the South East. With computers and algorithms becoming more complex it might be possible to calculate the state population just from the rice consumed or the kerosene used and the actual counting of people will just be to confirm or fine tune it.