Brexit: The Uncivil War

I just watched a short film on channel 4 about Brexit, the film did begin with a disclaimer 

This drama is based on real events 
and interviews with key people
who were there

Some aspects of dialogue, character
and scenes have been devised
for the purpose of dramatization

With this disclaimer, the film has given itself the freedom to virtually lie or give a false picture because it serves "the purpose of dramatization".

The story begins with Dominic Cummings (played by Benedict Cumberbatch) at what it seems to be post-Brexit interviews looking for a new job, is the man who single-handedly ran the "Out" campaign, he did appear arrogant and condescending when asked, how he would advise the firms he wanted to join and where did he see them in 5 or more years time. He was blunt and left the interviewers gobsmacked and told them frankly that they had failed to prepare for the future and unless they changed, they are likely to go under.

After a series of clips showing key points of the relationship between the UK and EU (EEC or Common Market) over the years, the relationship had always been turbulent. The story begins with a "secret" meeting between Douglas Carswell the only UKIP member of Parliament and Matthew Elliot a political lobbyist at the National Art Gallery in London, autumn 2015, just 275 days before the referendum.  From the meeting, we got to hear that they had been meeting secretly over the years and were able to force David Cameron's hand in calling for a referendum on Britain in Europe. They decided to call on the services of Dominic Cummings, who was at that time was out of a job. They had to paint the movement less UKIP and about immigration, avoid Aaron Banks and Nigel Farage which were seen as right-wing thugs and go for something more "respectable" and more board based.  The film seems like a comedy and painted all of the rest like idiots.  The other politicians in the film did not seem to have a clue to what they were doing. Dominic had done his customers surveys and seen various "focus groups" at various pubs in London, got his feedback report and seem years ahead of the rest of the team. The issue he came back with was it was based on immigration and race, people lacked trust in our public institutions, but everybody loved the NHS. They feared Turkey joining the EU with its open borders and feared the flood of people coming over. Most people did not even know they were represented in Europe or had an MEP (Member of European Parliament), talk less of who the person is. There were numerous problems and resentments that have been building up underneath over the years. He came up with a single message or slogan the visualized everything.  They wanted to "Take Back Control" boil it down to 2 points "Costs" and "Control". He wanted to create the "greatest political upset the world has seen since the fall of the Berlin wall".

The next meeting was with some old politicians, old school - these old politicians thought that they were dealing with a "geeky anarchists who want to show off", they believe in using MPs, talking to people at town halls, marketplaces, who were fully aware of local issues,  and debates, using traditional posters and flyers etc . They felt that they should lead the campaign with the support of the other political parties. The second meeting was with Aaron and Nigel in Dominic's office, Aaron boasted has had the money and given the most to any political party in UK history. Dominic was talking about targeting, analytical intelligent, making decisions based on analysis and data, microtargeting of voters (microtargeting refers to the process of "analyzing data to predict the behaviour, interests, and opinions held by specific groups of people and then serving them the messages they're most likely to respond to").  He believes that they had to "hack" the political system so that it worked for them. There was an important meeting in what seems to be Reagent's Park between Dominic and Mark Massingham (CEO AggregateIQ). Since social media had already had a large number of respondents they could target the people who don't vote and are angry because they believe the current political elites are not responding to their concerns. They were was able to create software that takes feeds from social media accounts and combine it with the electoral roll and was updated in real time. They were games and questions that were tailored in a way that was responsive and when you answered the questions they got to know you better and the software would know how to specifically target you or on what buttons to push to get the desired response. Then there was a coup in the leave campaign group where there was a plan to remove Dominic and rephrase the campaign to deal with immigration and the over burdensome bureaucracy. He quickly staged a counter-coup and removed all the political leaders of the leave campaign. The remaining campaign focused on jobs and the economy, traditional and old fashioned. While the remain campaign focused on appealing to people's minds with facts and figures. The leave appealed to their hearts, emotions and how they feel. Then of course, according to the film much later they approached Michael Gove and Boris Johnson who seem to lead the campaign

The irony was that these two politicians were seen as the major driving force behind the Brexit campaign. But they were ineffective hang alongs who had not made up their minds to the last moment. The message was in a nutset "£350 million and Turkey" This was based on the lie that Britain pays £350 million per week to the EU and a bigger lie that Turkey would soon join the EU. The £350 million figure was "was an error on the side of the bus. We grossly underestimated the sum over which we would be able to take back control". The mainstream politicians were a bit hesitant about the red buses, with the amount of £350 million and NHS logo being on it, but it seemed it was all Dominic idea. Who was economical with the truth. After a while that they were running their systems and "influencing" the electorate, Cumberbatch's character asked why after several weeks they were not getting any push back from the media or change in the polls. Massingham, told him was because all of there actions were under the radar of the traditional media, it is not in their data collections and they are not operating in real time. The leave campaign seemed to have created a myth and promised heaven and earth. With little facts and figures and they had little base in reality.

The remain campaign (Britain Stronger in Europe) headed by Craig Oliver in one instance, he broke into a focus group, where people seem to believe all the lies of Brexit. The £350 million being drained by the EU from the British economy and the fact that it will go to the NHS - both lies.  He explained that immigrants contribute more to the economy than the average citizens in taxes. But during the argument it became heated and a lady was so offended that she began to cry, and she had an outburst. Then Craig realized the problem, over the years they had failed to listen to a portion of the electorate who were not politically active, white and blue-collared. The drip had started 20 years ago with cut to services, lack of investment, poor infrastructure, there was an improvement but a huge majority of the populace had been left behind.  There was a meeting between Craig and Dominic after the met at Moorgate station, at a nearby pub. They had not realized that it will deteriorate to such almost destroying the soul of the country. Joan Cox had been stabbed by a neo-nazi sympathizer near her surgery (a place where a member of parliament meets their constituents, usually to hear their problems) in Bristol. Craig believed that Dominic was feeding a toxic environment with false information and exaggerations, that ensure that nobody listened to one another anymore.  He was undermining the civil discord and discussions to shouting matches and violence.  Dominic felt that he had given people a voice that has been ignored for years. That Craig, should not confuse him with Banks and Farage who were heavy-handed. Dominic's parting shot was that politics have changed and everything is out of the window, Craig is hurt because he cannot control it. Craig replied, "be careful what you wish for, you won't be able to control it either".

When leave won, those that needed to take credit took credit. Dominic did not believe that having a referendum was right, and certainly, something as complex as membership of the EU should have not been left to the British public to decide. When asked, he believed the politicians had looked for short term gain and votes, then long term strategic planning and prosperity. Aaron Banks had used Cambridge Analytica for his campaign. Both AggregateIQ and  Cambridge Analytica are linked to billionaire businessman Robert Mercer who went on to become the largest donor to the election campaign of President Donald Trump.

Hence, they have found how to hack the political process and Brexit was just a test case. This will repeat itself in the US Presidential elections ....