This book is about geopolitics and it says you have to understand geography and history, to understand international politics. The author believes that countries play a deterministic game and protect their own long term strategic interests. And by understanding their geography and history you could understand and be able to predict to some extent each country's actions. Tim Marshall the author, is a British journalist, he initially reported for the BBC and later Sky News. He is well known for his analysis of developments in foreign news and international diplomacy. He is an author of 6 books and has been a guest presenter on numerous programs. His knowledge is extensive and detailed. He has been in the front line in the world hot spots, especially during the war, covering Kosovo, Iraq, Gaza, Afghanistan, etc. He also won awards and certificates for his work. He is the founder and editor of thewhatandthewhy.com. Launched in February 2015, the site analyses world events and has contributions from writers from the world of politics and journalism.
The book after the introduction has a chapter each on Russia, China, USA, Western Europe, Africa, Middle East, India and Pakistan, Korea and Japan, Latin America, and the Arctic. Within each chapter, he deals with a brief history and geography of the region, why a particular country is acting as they should, and the short term and long term problems if they did not. He stresses that there aren't any morals or ethics involved but just pure self-interest and self-preservation of the countries involved. No country is altruistic per se and most actions are self-serving, on the other hand, no country is iniquitous or totally evil. As a matter of fact, most countries would rather get along with their neighbors and other countries as this is an advantage for trade, exchange of ideas, or goodwill at the UN, especially when voting comes to it. Even those who are ruled by despots, know the side that their bread is buttered. Some countries are protecting their access to a particular resource like water, minerals, oil, etc. But others are protecting their access to land, or to the sea. It seems the leaders are not planing for the next five years but are thinking about the next thirty years or a hundred years.
But it is understandable in a manner of speaking, if you have been invaded six times in the last hundred years or so by one route, you would want to make sure that you own that particular route or at least are on very friendly terms with whoever controls that route as it the case of Russia with Eastern Europe. Why the USSR seem to blink first during the Cuba Russian Crisis, after getting reassurances that the US missiles in Turkey will be removed. If you are next door to a very big country that you have had at least four major battles, you would want to be on friendly terms with your other neighbors, Pakistan close relationship with Afghanistan. That explains why international terrorist Osama bin Laden was living comfortably in Abbottabad, Pakistan right next to Pakistan Military Intelligence, while all the world was looking for him in remote caves in the desert of Afghanistan. If only one country supplies all your energy needs at a very cheap rate, you won't want to criticize that country openly, hence the relationship with Germany and Russia, which supplies it with cheap gas, and other European countries including Ukraine, Poland, Baltic states, etc. A newly formed country desperate need for resource and uncertain of its borders, hence leading them to cause a world war twice, Germany. In this game of 3 dimensional Chess, it seems each country is thinking strategically and every move it takes or does not take is it all in its self-interest. The African initiative of China could be taken as that in mind, although this was not hard to interpret taken the aggressive nature of some of the Chinese, their Debt trap, their action overseas in Africa, and the treatment of Africans in China. But China has to protect its interest, and Africa will not be in this problem as we have some dubious leaders who don't mind selling their citizens for their own self-gratification. Why China had to invade Tibet, and still occupy it and it is not likely to withdraw from it in the near future. Countries that have been drawn by lines or "lies" in the sand, and enemies being put together and friends separated, over oil interest and without considering natural borders and dividing tribes - Sykes-Picot Agreement, Middle East. That the issue between Israel and Arabs, seems to be the least of the problem in the Middle East and is used as a smokescreen by the dictators, and that the problem is more of that between various Islamic factions. Why Iraq felt it had to invade Kuwait, as apart they felt that it was their land initially, Iraq has a border of 3,809 km of which only 58 km is coastline. Why Iran can stop all of the oil coming out of the Persia Gulf by blocking the Strait of Hormuz which at its narrowest is 39 km, and is recognized as a naval chokepoint. The reason why it is in everybody's interest, the US, China, Russia, India, Japan, South East Asia, etc to maintain the despot's Kim Jong-Un regime and everybody was really afraid when they thought that he had died. Why Japan felt it had no other recourse than to attack Pearl harbor because of its lack of resources and the threat of US oil embargo. Why the US had to drop the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, because of Japan's mountains and difficult terrain an invasion will kill thousands, especially what happen at the small islands of Iwo Jima. The reason why the dictators in Argentina, felt it could invade the resource-rich Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) and the British knew they could retake it, and without having the Ascension island the British Task Force would not have been able to make the 13,000 Km journey. Why China is behind the Nicaragua canal and it refreshed relationship with Latin America, even what Russia did not do with spheres of influence and the Monroe doctrine. The Arctic is warming up hence opening routes and exposing rich resources, putting countries on their edge. Now, Russia, USA are spending more money on their Arctic fleets, especially that the famous Northwest Passage, i.e. the shortest route from Europe to Asia is now open the numerous explorers have died to find the route. This is an area that is warning up as various nation have claims to the area, and apart from gas and oil, there is oil, fish, etc an area where the next conflict is likely to happen or not. as there are rules, international agreements, and all the nations involved are "democratic".
He agrees with Prof Jared Diamond in his book Guns, Germs, and Steel, that geography is the main reason why Africa is behind in development. "History might have turned differently, if African armies, fed by barnyard giraffe meat and backed by waves of cavalry mounted on the huge rhino, had swept into Europe to overrun it's mutton-fed soldiers mounted on puny horses". He gave the fact that there are no navigable rivers, no natural harbours, the Sahara desert, the thick jungles which separated tribes and kingdoms hence not allowing the free-flowing ideas as during the enlightenment in Europe, lack of domesticated animals, or grains, then diseases like malaria, yellow fever, sleeping sickness, etc. Although the rivers are terrible for navigation and trade, they are excellent for damning and hydroelectricity. This is a similar problem in South America. The most basic way to explain Africa is in thirds, the top one third is Arabic speaking and or Muslim. Which consist of the Sahel which stretches from the Gambia, on the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea. The two thirds below this consist of thick jungle, rain forest, swamps, and green vegetation. The borders are artificial and the nations are from a Eurocentric perspective, where their explorers, soldiers, or businessmen have claimed on behalf of their sponsored countries. The term developing nation is a far too broad term, as some actually are not "developing" at all. The Democratic Republic of Congo is neither democratic or a republic. The way Belgium treated their colony made the British and French look benign by comparison. Belgium ruled part of German East Africa and used the Tutsi which was just 15% of the population to rule, hence the Tutsi dominated the Politics, Economics, and Military leaving the majority Hutu with almost nothing. And after while violence erupted as these things do when there is massive inequality. The systems that the Europeans had put in place were great for the extraction of resources i.e. raw materials for their industries but were terrible for the development of that country. Hence, accountability and transparency were not necessary at all levels.
All the conflicts in Africa have tribal undertones, to which the two major ideologies of twentieth-century i.e. socialism and capitalism between the US and USSR, failed to or deliberately refused to understand or comprehend. Hence, if one tribe went socialist the other went capitalist. This totally devastated Africa especially during the Cold War era, killing millions and prolonging despots in power. After the fall of communism in the USSR and the end of the Cold War, there was a paradigm shift and some dictators saw their services were no longer needed.
In Nigeria Boko Haram was restricted to the Kanuri tribe would felt disenfranchised despite all the oil wealth which was sent to specific oil accounts. The Chinese are everywhere in Africa and they don't ask complicated or difficult questions, like would you be able to pay us back, or if the government is corrupt, questions that the IMF and World Bank ask. They are involved in building infrastructure that Africa lacks everywhere building ports, buildings, hydroelectric dams, hospitals, etc.
Due to climatic changes islands are disappearing and populations are moving causing migrations and emigration to the rich nations. These along with "religious" wars which have tribal and resources seeking undertones. Desert encroachment is most likely to be responsible for the Fulani Herdsmen attacks in Nigeria. Reports say that Nigeria loses at least 35,000 hectares of its arable land annually to desert encroachment in the North. Then there is the issue of water, water-wars seems to be the next big thing, with dams being built downstream, hence preventing water from going downstream. Egypt's military was overhead suggesting that they bomb Ethiopia's new multi-million new dam across the Nile as to ensure their water supply.
Then there is the issue of Space, from simple satellites and rockets. We now, have spying satellites and finding resources from space. Only a few nations have the ability to go to space, but there are hundreds of satellites in orbit. To maintain a presence in space would require co-operation, between nations that we have not seen before. Hence, American, European and Indian astronauts are been taken up in Russian rockets and they maintain a presence in an American built space station. Since the Moon is resource-rich and the battles seem to be taken to the moon but as with arctic, they will need to be a higher degree of cooperation between nations.
The book after the introduction has a chapter each on Russia, China, USA, Western Europe, Africa, Middle East, India and Pakistan, Korea and Japan, Latin America, and the Arctic. Within each chapter, he deals with a brief history and geography of the region, why a particular country is acting as they should, and the short term and long term problems if they did not. He stresses that there aren't any morals or ethics involved but just pure self-interest and self-preservation of the countries involved. No country is altruistic per se and most actions are self-serving, on the other hand, no country is iniquitous or totally evil. As a matter of fact, most countries would rather get along with their neighbors and other countries as this is an advantage for trade, exchange of ideas, or goodwill at the UN, especially when voting comes to it. Even those who are ruled by despots, know the side that their bread is buttered. Some countries are protecting their access to a particular resource like water, minerals, oil, etc. But others are protecting their access to land, or to the sea. It seems the leaders are not planing for the next five years but are thinking about the next thirty years or a hundred years.
But it is understandable in a manner of speaking, if you have been invaded six times in the last hundred years or so by one route, you would want to make sure that you own that particular route or at least are on very friendly terms with whoever controls that route as it the case of Russia with Eastern Europe. Why the USSR seem to blink first during the Cuba Russian Crisis, after getting reassurances that the US missiles in Turkey will be removed. If you are next door to a very big country that you have had at least four major battles, you would want to be on friendly terms with your other neighbors, Pakistan close relationship with Afghanistan. That explains why international terrorist Osama bin Laden was living comfortably in Abbottabad, Pakistan right next to Pakistan Military Intelligence, while all the world was looking for him in remote caves in the desert of Afghanistan. If only one country supplies all your energy needs at a very cheap rate, you won't want to criticize that country openly, hence the relationship with Germany and Russia, which supplies it with cheap gas, and other European countries including Ukraine, Poland, Baltic states, etc. A newly formed country desperate need for resource and uncertain of its borders, hence leading them to cause a world war twice, Germany. In this game of 3 dimensional Chess, it seems each country is thinking strategically and every move it takes or does not take is it all in its self-interest. The African initiative of China could be taken as that in mind, although this was not hard to interpret taken the aggressive nature of some of the Chinese, their Debt trap, their action overseas in Africa, and the treatment of Africans in China. But China has to protect its interest, and Africa will not be in this problem as we have some dubious leaders who don't mind selling their citizens for their own self-gratification. Why China had to invade Tibet, and still occupy it and it is not likely to withdraw from it in the near future. Countries that have been drawn by lines or "lies" in the sand, and enemies being put together and friends separated, over oil interest and without considering natural borders and dividing tribes - Sykes-Picot Agreement, Middle East. That the issue between Israel and Arabs, seems to be the least of the problem in the Middle East and is used as a smokescreen by the dictators, and that the problem is more of that between various Islamic factions. Why Iraq felt it had to invade Kuwait, as apart they felt that it was their land initially, Iraq has a border of 3,809 km of which only 58 km is coastline. Why Iran can stop all of the oil coming out of the Persia Gulf by blocking the Strait of Hormuz which at its narrowest is 39 km, and is recognized as a naval chokepoint. The reason why it is in everybody's interest, the US, China, Russia, India, Japan, South East Asia, etc to maintain the despot's Kim Jong-Un regime and everybody was really afraid when they thought that he had died. Why Japan felt it had no other recourse than to attack Pearl harbor because of its lack of resources and the threat of US oil embargo. Why the US had to drop the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, because of Japan's mountains and difficult terrain an invasion will kill thousands, especially what happen at the small islands of Iwo Jima. The reason why the dictators in Argentina, felt it could invade the resource-rich Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) and the British knew they could retake it, and without having the Ascension island the British Task Force would not have been able to make the 13,000 Km journey. Why China is behind the Nicaragua canal and it refreshed relationship with Latin America, even what Russia did not do with spheres of influence and the Monroe doctrine. The Arctic is warming up hence opening routes and exposing rich resources, putting countries on their edge. Now, Russia, USA are spending more money on their Arctic fleets, especially that the famous Northwest Passage, i.e. the shortest route from Europe to Asia is now open the numerous explorers have died to find the route. This is an area that is warning up as various nation have claims to the area, and apart from gas and oil, there is oil, fish, etc an area where the next conflict is likely to happen or not. as there are rules, international agreements, and all the nations involved are "democratic".
He agrees with Prof Jared Diamond in his book Guns, Germs, and Steel, that geography is the main reason why Africa is behind in development. "History might have turned differently, if African armies, fed by barnyard giraffe meat and backed by waves of cavalry mounted on the huge rhino, had swept into Europe to overrun it's mutton-fed soldiers mounted on puny horses". He gave the fact that there are no navigable rivers, no natural harbours, the Sahara desert, the thick jungles which separated tribes and kingdoms hence not allowing the free-flowing ideas as during the enlightenment in Europe, lack of domesticated animals, or grains, then diseases like malaria, yellow fever, sleeping sickness, etc. Although the rivers are terrible for navigation and trade, they are excellent for damning and hydroelectricity. This is a similar problem in South America. The most basic way to explain Africa is in thirds, the top one third is Arabic speaking and or Muslim. Which consist of the Sahel which stretches from the Gambia, on the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea. The two thirds below this consist of thick jungle, rain forest, swamps, and green vegetation. The borders are artificial and the nations are from a Eurocentric perspective, where their explorers, soldiers, or businessmen have claimed on behalf of their sponsored countries. The term developing nation is a far too broad term, as some actually are not "developing" at all. The Democratic Republic of Congo is neither democratic or a republic. The way Belgium treated their colony made the British and French look benign by comparison. Belgium ruled part of German East Africa and used the Tutsi which was just 15% of the population to rule, hence the Tutsi dominated the Politics, Economics, and Military leaving the majority Hutu with almost nothing. And after while violence erupted as these things do when there is massive inequality. The systems that the Europeans had put in place were great for the extraction of resources i.e. raw materials for their industries but were terrible for the development of that country. Hence, accountability and transparency were not necessary at all levels.
All the conflicts in Africa have tribal undertones, to which the two major ideologies of twentieth-century i.e. socialism and capitalism between the US and USSR, failed to or deliberately refused to understand or comprehend. Hence, if one tribe went socialist the other went capitalist. This totally devastated Africa especially during the Cold War era, killing millions and prolonging despots in power. After the fall of communism in the USSR and the end of the Cold War, there was a paradigm shift and some dictators saw their services were no longer needed.
In Nigeria Boko Haram was restricted to the Kanuri tribe would felt disenfranchised despite all the oil wealth which was sent to specific oil accounts. The Chinese are everywhere in Africa and they don't ask complicated or difficult questions, like would you be able to pay us back, or if the government is corrupt, questions that the IMF and World Bank ask. They are involved in building infrastructure that Africa lacks everywhere building ports, buildings, hydroelectric dams, hospitals, etc.
Due to climatic changes islands are disappearing and populations are moving causing migrations and emigration to the rich nations. These along with "religious" wars which have tribal and resources seeking undertones. Desert encroachment is most likely to be responsible for the Fulani Herdsmen attacks in Nigeria. Reports say that Nigeria loses at least 35,000 hectares of its arable land annually to desert encroachment in the North. Then there is the issue of water, water-wars seems to be the next big thing, with dams being built downstream, hence preventing water from going downstream. Egypt's military was overhead suggesting that they bomb Ethiopia's new multi-million new dam across the Nile as to ensure their water supply.
Then there is the issue of Space, from simple satellites and rockets. We now, have spying satellites and finding resources from space. Only a few nations have the ability to go to space, but there are hundreds of satellites in orbit. To maintain a presence in space would require co-operation, between nations that we have not seen before. Hence, American, European and Indian astronauts are been taken up in Russian rockets and they maintain a presence in an American built space station. Since the Moon is resource-rich and the battles seem to be taken to the moon but as with arctic, they will need to be a higher degree of cooperation between nations.
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