The Gentleman's Agreement

 

I just finished watching a documentary on BBC titled "Blair & Brown: The New Labour Revolution". This documentary levels us on the relationship between the two of the most outstanding personalities that have ever influenced the Labour Party since it started about one hundred years ago. Gordon Brown has Labour in his blood, his father was a minister in the Church of Scotland, and he saw the closure of the textile mills and then the coal mines in his area around Kirkcaldy, which had an effect on him. His oratory skills are said to be like in the manner of an evangelical preacher, something maybe he picked up from his father. Brown saw the effect of unemployment on the community and was very active in community services. Brown spoke there to keep and maintain the already converted, the Labour faithful, the core Labour base. At the University of Edinburgh, as a doctoral graduate in history, he became the university elected rector, and he was active in student politics. He spent some time as a lecturer and a television journalist. Brown had been the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland and had been a Labour candidate since 1976. Tony Blair could not be any different from him, and he came from a middle-class family. Grew long hair and was actively socially at Oxford University, interested in rock music and played the guitar. Only at university did he become interested in politics due to the friends he had at that time. Although his father was a conservative, he had a lot of socialist friends at Oxford, which led him in a different direction. He had a more debating oratory skill as his background was in law. He spoke to convince the sceptical voter, those Labour voters that voted for Margaret Thatcher in the '80s and from the average Conservative voter, he drew new converts.

Tony Blair joined the Labour party in 1975 after graduating from Oxford. Nineteen eighty-three was the year that brought them together. Brown won the Dunfermline East in Scotland, and Blair finally won the seat of Sedgefield in North England. The Conservatives had won by a landslide, Labour lost up to 60 seats in the 1983 general election, and the Conservatives had a majority of 144 seats under Margaret Thatcher. Labour continued to lose even when Mrs Thatcher's had left the government in 1990. John Major won more seats than Mrs Thatcher. As junior members of the Parliaments in 1983, Blair and Brown were given a small windowless office in Westminster, and according to Blair, this is where New Labour was born. The two of them were always seen in deep discussions and planning for the future of the Labour Party. A third figure Peter Mandelson, then the Labour Party leader's Neil Kinnock's Director of Communications in 1985, joined them. Blair, Brown and Mandelson were always together and they were known collectively as the three musketeers. But it was apparent to almost everyone that Labour had an image problem. The Labour Party was losing seats in the North of England, Scotland and Wales. The Party was known for disrupting progress, no one wanting to trust them on the economy and had precarious links with the Unions which especially in the late 70s, people believed were always on strike.  

In the 1987 election, the Tories (Conservatives) won by a landslide by 100 seats. The Labour Party was led by Neil Kinnock. John Smith was his Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer (UK's Minister of Finance), and he had Brown as his deputy. Brown had a kind of affinity towards John Smith, and after the 1992 defeat, Brown made it evident that he would not run against Smith. But Blair and Mandelson had known for some time that the Labour Party had to change fundamentally and also in a way Brown, the old guard had to change, the link with the Unions was not helping them, and whenever a Labour Party came into government, there would be a run on the pound. Smith in a way had an old philosphy and believed not to rock the boat. The financial institutions would withdraw their funds hence causing further economic problems. Labour governments solution was usually to tax the wealthy and large corporations, then use the government's power to make more money accessible to the public by manipulating the currency and causing further financial problems. The burden was felt most in the working class. This would lead to the economy failing and, subsequently, them being booted out of government at the next general election, and it was believed that there were regular Boom and Bust Cycles. There had never been a two-term Labour government in its one hundred year history. Blair wanted to take the centre-ground on crime, education, health, foreign affairs, etc., that he believed Labour had no policy. He saw these as easy pickings and believed that Labour should have a more Progressive agenda for a more robust and fairer society.  According to the documentary, they saw it as their chance to turn the Party around as the Party needed a totally different mindset. It needed young, charismatic, dynamic media-savvy leaders who were different from the usual Labour Union members. Modernizers who wanted to change the whole leadership wanted to back Brown after Neil Kinnock resigned his post as Labour leader in 1992 and prevent John Smith, who was regarded as the old guard, from taking over. But Brown's failure to respond due to his loyalty and commitment to John Smith was seen as a weakness by Blair, and it was said that "something turned in Tony's head" after he realized he could not depend on Brown. After the defeat for Labour in the general election of 1992, Blair had to explain why to the voters and public, making numerous television, radio and public appearances as the voice of the Labour Party. Both Blair and Brown were now members of the John Smith's Shadow Cabinet, Brown now Chancellor of the Exchequer and Blair became Shadow Home Secretary. In 1993, the Clintons entered the White House, and the young Labour parliamentarians Brown, Blair, and others, including Mandelson, went across the Atlantic to compare notes. Mainly the US Democrats now reflected a centrist "Third Way" political philosophy. Most of the senior Labour Party officials in the UK felt it was a waste of time and resources. But it was apparent that all had to change, and the Achilles heel of the Labour Party was the economy, and they had to reassure the British public that they could trust them on the economy.

On 12th May 1994, John Smith suddenly died from a heart attack, and they would have to reelect a Labout leader. Blair and Brown were both forerunners for the position of Prime Minister. Still, after looking at the polls, they both decided that Blair would get more votes from the public in a general election and return Labour to power due to his multiple television appearances. The response he got was more positive. Brown suddenly, to the surprise of everyone, withdrew and put his weight behind Blair. According to them, the basics were that they made a pact or gentleman's agreement that Brown would be allowed total independence in financial issues as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Then after two terms, Blair will hand over Premiership with his support to Brown. Although there seem to be different versions of this agreement floating around, what the documentary made very clear and what seemed evident from their subsequent actions went along those lines. Blair won 57% of the primaries in the Labour Party against John Prescot and Margert Beckett in October 1994. They came up with the slogan "new Labour, new Britain" to display and demonstrate that they had broken with the past. New Labour was a middle way, a centrist policy on a lot of issues. Many people believed that Blair was the "new" and Brown was the "Labour" in "new Labour". They were known as the TB-GB team.

Blair's Labour Party later won by a landslide in the 1997 general election, becoming at 43 years the youngest Prime Minister ever elected since 1812, after Lord Liverpool and ending Conservative 18 years in power. One of the issues that might have helped was that Conservatives were divided and fighting over Europe, and another was a sleaze involving John Major and other ministers.  This issue of Europe will eventually lead to Brexit many years later, but it just raised its ugly head with a lot of backstabbing and name-calling in the Tories. 

With this new Cabinet, expectations were very high, and one thing Gordon Brown did on day one was give the Bank of England complete operational control of setting the interest rates. This ensured that the city, banks, financial sector and other countries knew that Labour meant business and the pound exchange rate increased. The government also set up a new deal for the unemployed, and there was an agreement in Northern Ireland agreement by April 1998 - Good Friday Agreement.  Although the Nobel peace prize went to David Trimble and John Hume, the British Prime Minister role in it cannot be understated, as there were many instances that the agreement was fleeting, but due to Blair's persistence and hard work, it was a success. He went to Northern Ireland against advice from those in his government and made a lot of ex-soldiers angry by meeting with Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams and also shaked his hands. After the agreement, it was said that Blair developed a Messiah Complex. Also, they had achieved many things that the majority of the public was not interested in, like Scottish and Wales devolution, House of Lord Reform, Freedom of Information Act and Human Rights Legislation. The economy was doing well, but they both wanted to do Public Sector Reform, but their interpretation differed. Then also, the was a split in the Cabinet between the Blairites and the Brownites, financial issues were left to Brown and Blair was left with running the country. Brown was prudent and aimed for stability, especially in the financial markets. Brown made sure that money was tightly controlled and was known as the Iron Chancellor. But to run government policies, you need money, and when Number 10 and Number 11 are not talking to one another, there will be problems. Blair appeared on Morning with Frost and explained how the UK was committed to spending up to 5% of its GDP on the NHS (Health) like other advanced European countries. This he did, it seems, without consorting Brown. When Brown was thought to have heard about it, it was claimed that Brown shouted, "he stole my F**KING BUDGET!".  Things became improved subsequently to introduce working tax credit, increase child benefits, reduce inequality, etc. In the 2001  general election, Labour lost only six seats returning with a landslide 412 (43.2%), a 167 seat majority. The Conservatives under William Hague gained only one seat while 6 additional seats went to the Liberal Democrats.

The 11th September 2001 (9/11) attacks changed everything. The British wanted more convincing to invade another country, and Blair ensured they had a UN agreement before attacking Afghanistan. The Taliban government fell after only two months. But Dick Cheney had his eye on Iraq. Blair ensured they were a multinational coalition and was working for UN authorization before they invaded. Saddam had used Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) against his own people and used them against Iran and Kuwait. Saddam Hussien was a terrible person, a psychopath in a manner of speaking. A lot of people were against invading Iraq. Unlike Afghanistan, Iraq could not be defined as an Islamic state that has a more sectarian government. There were demonstrations, and members of the Cabin resigned - Robin Cook especially. The French, a permanent member of the UN security council, came out saying that they would veto any suggestion to invade Iraq at the UN. Hence getting UN authorization was out of the window. But the next best thing was to get parliamentary support, and the UK parliament voted 412 to 149 to go to war with Iraq.

The war took less than 2 months, but they had destroyed Iraq institutions and the Baath Party. After removing Saddam, maintaining the peace was far more complex. One reason for the war was a dossier produced by the intelligent services and "sexed up" by the politicians. In the dossier, there was a statement that Suddam Hussein could unlash WMD within 45 minutes. There was an inquest on the war, and one of the authors of the dossier, a weapons expert, Dr David Kelly, was called upon to give information, but he later died under suspicious circumstances. Most of the intelligence turned out to be false. Iraq had no WMD, 179 British personnel died, and Iraq descended into total chaos and civil war.

On the 6th May 2005, Labour won a 3rd time, and by this time, the relationship in the TB-GB team was from bad to worse. They had lost 100 seats of their majority, and it took an extra effort between Blair and Brown. They had to reconcile their differences and produce a common front. After the election Brown, was on Blair's case, wanting to take over. It was said Brown would storm into Blair's office, demanding when he would go. Those around them found the tension palpable, with Brown shouting and swearing. Later, 17 MPs wrote an open letter requesting the Prime Minister to go. A lot of junior Ministers began, to resign and by September 2006, the writing was on the wall. Tony Blair announced at the Labour Party Conference that he would be going. Although, the Tories knew that Blair was a Tory Destroying Machine, especially with his centrist policies. Although immediately after Blair left, Brown increased popularity, being Prime Minister is different from being Chancellor. But his reluctance to call a snap election affected his popularity. He was expected to solve all the countries problems. There was a terrorist attack, then flooding in Northern England, then was a Foot and Mouth disease outbreak. He found his polls slipping as he could not keep a hold on things. Peter Mandelson was called back to the government, but Brown poll numbers continued to slip. 

In 2008, the financial crash occurred; this was a God sent to Brown, this he could understand. A lot of people believed that the 2008 financial crisis saved Brown premiership. Brown coordinated an international response and got the G7 in London to arrange a $1 trillion rescue package. In short, he was able to save the world economy. But the ordinary person in the street felt the effect of the global recession and not that of the rescue package, and when Brown called an election in May 2009, for 2010 this resulted in a hung parliament. The Queen called on the Party with the highest number of votes, the Conservatives (306 ), to form a government i.e. No Party being able form a government on its own, and the Tories formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrats (57), leaving Labour out (258). The Tories under David Cameron formed a coalition with the 3rd largest Party. Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats policies were more like the Tories. 

This is an excellent documentary that puts things into perspective. They got the prominent former politicians to talk, and you could see the pain in their eyes as they talked about things they could have done. The regret they felt about the Iraq war and deaths, but the pride about what they achieved. People are superficial and vote on their emotions and not in their best interest in most cases. Blair did appear ruthless and was a very successful politician who understood the nation's mood and knew a change was needed in the Labour Party. Brown did not seem to understand the British public but was a great Chancellor of the Exchequer who understood government and made significant policies but was not a great Prime Minister. The agreement led to the most extended continuous regime of a Labour government, and the Labour party did really change and was due to two great people. Who were brought down by the agreement they made and their own personal ambition in the end