"Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.”
Michael Corleone
“The Don, rest in peace, was slippin’.
Ten years ago could I have gotten to him?”
Virgil “the Turk” Sollozzo
The Godfather Doctrine, a foreign policy parable, starts with the fact that the US must redefine its role in the new world. The US had won the Cold War, and American business set the pace of global commerce. The book is relatively small and tries to merge the complexities of international politics with "The Godfather" which we all know. American soldiers and institutions had set the pace and tone of the world. However, America faces problems not because it has made mistakes, although some have been made, but because other powers have started to rise. Although the two major parties in the US might disagree, they agree fundamentally on America's role in the world. In The Godfather, Vito Corleone faces the rising Tattaglia and Barzini families relative to his own. In the real world, the BRICS nations are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In the Godfather world, Sollozzo, who is a relatively nobody, makes a move on Vito Corleone, which is similar to the September 11 attacks. Then they see the vulnerability of the US System. The three sons, Sonny, Tom Hagen and Michael, all have different approaches to solving problems and correspond to the present policies. Sonny has an aggressive stance and uses US military strength - a neoconservative stance. Tom Hagen, the adopted son, is the consigliere; he is the head lawyer and wants to go according to the rules, and wants to fall on the family's diplomatic and institutional support system - liberal institutionalist viewpoint. Then you have Michael, who wants to consolidate the family's power base, rally its support, and live to fight another day - a realist. "Gone is the comforting simplicity of the old Cold War era, with one enemy to fight, one ideology to defeat, one opposing system to understand. Ours is a strange and complicated new world".
The book states, "Rather than a triumphant stroll along the flagstone-paved pathway to a new American Century, the country’s current course looks more and more like a grim and unforgiving trudge down the steep and rocky slope of decline". Sollozo, a petty criminal, was able to challenge the Don. There are always opportunists who would want to challenge the status quo. Sonny, the Don’s undisputed heir, is the most shaken by the attempted hit on his father, whom he venerates. His simplistic response to the crisis is to advocate “toughness” through military action, a one-note policy prescription for waging righteous war against the rest of the ungrateful Mafia world.
Neoconservative (Sonny): “Hey, get this, Sollozzo wants to talk—can you imagine the nerve on that son of a bitch? Last night he made a hit on pop, today he wants to talk …”
Liberal Institutionalist (Tom Hagen): “We oughta hear what they have to say.”
Neoconservative (Sonny): “No, no more. Not this time, Consigliere; no more meetings, no more discussions, no more Sollozzo tricks.”
Liberal Institutionalist (Tom Hagen): “Sonny, this is business, not personal.”
Neoconservative (Sonny): “Well then business will have to suffer, alright? And do me a favour: no more advice on how to patch things up—just help me win, alright?”
"Sonny attempts to arbitrate the escalating domestic disputes between his sister, Connie, and her abusive husband, Carlo Ricci, failing to see that the beatings his sister endured from Carlo came at the behest of Don Barzini, the Corleones’ closest peer competitor. Sonny’s reaction to all the evils of the world, whether beyond his ability to solve or not, is entirely predictable: “Attack.” Unilaterally rushing to avenge his sister by pummeling Carlo, Sonny is struck down by his legion of foes, his body riddled with bullets. " Sonny unwittingly severs long-standing family alliances and unites much of the rest of the Mafia world against the Corleones. This is what we see happening in the world now. Trump has made Canada look Eastward towards Europe, regarding military projection, and Mexico is looking elsewhere. Sonny’s rash instinct to use military power to solve his structural problems merely hastens the family’s decline. The US does not want to become predictable, as its enemies and friends can use the reaction to their advantage. What saves the family is the reaction of the youngest, least experienced Michael, who does not come to the family meetings. He has no plans for any particular new partnership or friendship.
Michael saw alliances as real foundation of Corleone power and was mindful of the need to tend the family’s “base” of support, not only with big players like Clemenza and Tessio (Britain and France) but with small players like the cakemaker and undertaker (Bulgaria and Romania) whose loyalty he is seen cultivating in the opening scenes of the movie. Second, Michael understands that, no matter how strong its military or how savvy its diplomats, the Corleone family will not succeed in the multipolar environment ahead unless it learns to take better care of its allies. Michael is a realist and has a Machiavellian element to it, as towards the end of the film he says, "Barzini is dead. So is Phillip Tattaglia. Moe Greene. Stracci. Cuneo. Today I settled all family business." After ordering the murder of all other heads of the other four mafia families, they moved out from New York to Las Vegas. Hence, starting from a position of strength instead of weakness. He did not want to confirm what Moe Greene said, that they were being "chased out of New York by Barzini and the other Families".
A Trumpian Sonny is not going to help the US in the long term. The allies, who are no longer assured of America's help, are not getting together. Although under Trump, it is claimed that the US did not go into any wars. But a trade war can cause damage as a real war or may lead to a real war, as Japan experienced during the late 1930s and early 1940s. Japan believed that it had no other alternative but to invade countries that had the raw materials, crude oil and iron that its growing economy desperately needed at that time. Now, there is a worldwide recession and the stagnation of wages since the 80s. Then another economic change is coming due to the Artificial Intelligence revolution, which will lead to a loss of jobs. That is because of his belief that the US is giving too much away, and he wanted an America First Policy. Trump is withdrawing the US from its international commitments and alliances. Starting a gangland free-for-all in the wake of the hit on his father, Sonny unwittingly severs long-standing family alliances and unites much of the rest of the Mafia world against the Corleones. Canada and Mexico are finding a new partnership and friendship. Instead of expanding the Bretton Woods agreement, America is going with its America First Policy. This policy prioritised U.S. interests in trade, immigration, and foreign affairs. It emphasised strict tough border control, tariffs to protect American jobs, reduced foreign military involvement, and withdrawal from global agreements like the Paris Climate Accord. Trump pushed allies to contribute more and favoured bilateral deals over international cooperation. Supporters saw it as patriotic and protective; critics called it isolationist.
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